28 Dec 2010-it's a wrap ! Part 1
Perasaan saya untuk meninggalkan 2010 ? “PUAS”… banyak telah terjadi, dapat pengalaman baru dan berjaya memerdekakan 2 Group Agency Manager dalam satu tahun. Seronok nak jumpa tahun 2011. Apa yang “PUAS” sangat ? Iqra’ lah…
What a way to end the year – Hurrah ! Awesome ! Congrats to the Malaysian Tigers for winning bolasepak last night at the AFF Suzuki Cup final. (I’m not a football fan, but can’t help feeling the excitement and energy of “Malaysia Boleh!”)
And indeed the “Malaysia Boleh” spirit was evident in the Malaysia economy and the Emerging Markets of Asia showing a strong growth of recovery. Major economic events, especially at home over the year and perhaps lesson learnt follows next.
• Malaysia – Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) started at 2% (historical low), the FBMKLCI at around 1280 (DJIA 10600, HSI 22500)
• China continued growing at a fantastic rate (Q4’2009 at 10.7% yoy) while the US rebounded with “green shoots” from the sub-prime crisis. Euro zone plagued by debt issues of the PIIGS and government pressured to trim spending
[Jaslinah & JUST : a newborn Group Agency Manager was delivered “Arif Ismail” – the Caliph of Caliph group]
• Malaysia – officially declared out of recession; with GDP 4Q’2009 at 4.5% yoy.
• China and India start to “worry” about inflation simmering & possible overheating and asset bubbles forming.
• Political tension in Thailand.
• US continue to be worried over its high near 10% unemployment rate; despite “green shoots”.
[Jaslinah & JUST : Birthday x 2. Jas conducted talks at Johor Bharu & Kluang branch of PMB]
• Malaysia – OPR raised to 2.25% by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) as a pro-active move to suppress inflation and normalise interest rates in Malaysia (shucks ! we’re not so Islamic after all…)
• Malaysia – Part 1 of the New Economic Model (NEM) revealed; on strategies to achieve high-income nation status by year 2020. Postponement of GST (sales & service tax) to maybe Q3 of 2011.
[ Jas’s thoughts – the GST (sales & service tax) is a more efficient way of taxing people based on their spending, and not on their income – this will drive people to spend more wisely (contoh – makan at hotel, sure kena GST, makan at warong, no GST) and not penalize orang-orang yang rajin bekerja dan berpendapatan tinggi]
• US – maintain interest rates near 0% to accommodate economic recovery
• Observe widening of interest rates differentials between developed aconomies and emerging economies.
[Jas’s thoughts : when interest rate naik, matawang bertambah mahal (more value) berbanding matawang lain; so mengakibatkan lebih banyak dana masuk Negara yang matawang lebih tinggi’ Kalau tak control, mungkin invite spekulasi terhadap asset seperti stock market dan property]
[JUST : booth 7 hari di Mydin Subang]
• Malaysia – Malaysia Ringgit (RM) strengthened breaking the 3.19 level against USD. This is due to interest rates differential widening between RM and USD; on the back of stronger economic fundamentals in Malaysia. Similarly, stronger Asian currencies and China’s Yuan vs-a-vs USD.
• In Europe – Greece’s credit was downgraded to ‘junk’ and Portugal on alert ! IMF planning financial aid to Greece.
• Malaysia – further hike in OPR to 2.5% while 1Q’2010 GDP grew fastest pace in 10 years to 10.1% yoy. Malaysia named 10th most competitive nation out of 58 economies for year 2009 by a Swiss-cased source.
• Pemandu create uproar when Idris Jala made statement of possibility of Malaysia heading towards bankruptcy if government continues to its generous “santa claus” subsidies of main items. He mooted the plan to reduce government’s subsidy and save RM103b over 5 years.
• Euro zone debt problem now focus on Spain but equity market panic subsided after a USD1 trillion rescue package formulated for Greece debt woes which could pull down the Euro currency.
[Jaslinah & JUST – we visited Seoul, Korea under the PMB Incentive Trip. Our group qualifiers are Farah, Hasimah, Nubaila. Jas just tagged along and forgo her Dubai trip]
[Jas : pindah rumah baru – banyak nye kena belanja dan tukar kereta baru – going green baby ! So driving a diesel green engine machine]
[JUST : another GAM born “Hasimah Muhammad”]
• Malaysia – our PM Najib unveiled the 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) road map for country’s economy – amongst the targets are a 6% GDP per year, 12.8% annual growth in private investment, reduction of government’s spending (fiscal policy) from 5.3% to 2.8% of GDP in year 2015.
• Indonesia & South Korea announced some capital control measures to manage hot money flowing into their economies
• Japan got a new PM- Naoto Kan, after resignation of Yukio Hatoyama (serving leass than a year !)
• Europe and US continue to pressure China to revalue Yuan – China responded and agreed to allow their Yuan to “appreciate”.
[Jas : risk of allowing the China’s Yuan to appreciate (jadi mahal) against USD and EUR is that, China’s export akan jadi lebih mahal and maybe their economy boleh terjejas]
[Jas invited to Batu Pahat & Melaka branch to give talk]
[JUST : booth exhibition at the international exhibition of Halal goods – MIHAS at Matrade]
<END of part One>
+ information adapted from StarBizWeek 25 Dec 2010