Justunittrust | Halatuju Saham Tahun 2011
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Halatuju Saham Tahun 2011

Halatuju Saham Tahun 2011

There’s always two sides to a story. But in the case of stock market (equity, saham, shares) there’s maybe more than two !

Year-to-date the FBM KLCI naik 246.13 mata (+19.34%) ke 1518.91 pada 30 Disember 2010; touching a record high of 1531.99 in November 2010. Hebat ! If those yang “in the market” during March 2009 bottom of 838.39 points until sekarang – that’s +81.2% !!! Awesome huh ?

In analisa pasaran saham, the following methods are used :

1. Fundamental analysis – forecast based on fakta-fakta ekonomi such as growth (GDP), interest rates & inflation, pasaran-pasaran berkaitan (commodity, foreign exchange, bond/sukuk dsb).

2. Technical analysis – forecast based on charta-charta pasaran pelbagai pasaran sahan (klci, klsi, dow joines, hang seng dsb) dan menggunakan statistic & formula mathematic. Menariknya method ini, adalah kita dapat tengok dalam bentuk gambar dan dapat “feel” direction market. “Picture speaks a thousand words” or “A picture speaks louder than words”.

3. Teknik-teknik lain (less conventional) – astrology, feng shui, numerology dsb.

Saya gemar menggunakan teknik “Technical analysis” untuk jangkamasa pendek digabung dengan “Fundamental analysis” untuk identify trend keseluruhan. Kekadang jenguk juga teknik ketiga – just for fun !

What’s to happen in 2011 ? Fundamental analyst prediction (extracted from The EDGE – Financial Daily 3 January 2011) generally as follows :

  • a bullish uptrend in 1H’2011 followed by volatile 2H’2011
  • upside targets for KLCI : 1620 > 1650 > 1710 > 1870   (wow !!! tingginye)
  • factors support uptrend : liquidity driven rally (some from QE2 -US), low interest rates globally, implementation of ETP (Malaysia), Strength of Ringgit Malaysia, strength of commodity (oil, rubber, kelapa sawit – Malaysia)
  • factors of risk : Inflation on the rise (cost of biz increase) from rising commodity prices, pace of economic recovery in US, sovereign debt (hutang kerajaan) issue in Euro zone & China’s rising of cost (interest rates, asset & property etc).

++ETP – Economic Transformation Programme

Here, saya attached “technical analysis” charts yang simple to “feel” direction of the market in 2011. If you want to view – download here

Happy twenty-eleven ya all !

Jas Rahman

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