Justunittrust | Soalan cepu-emas ?
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Soalan cepu-emas ?

Soalan cepu-emas ?

Selamat menyambut Hari Pekerja/Buruh.

Honestly I don’t see why we celebrate this Labor Day. Does the employees feel celebrated ? If not, apakah cara terBAIK untuk majikan celebrate pekerja mereka ? Hmmm – more gaji, less working hours, good office ambience, less office politics & *ss kissing. HA HA HA mana ada majikan macam ni ? Sebab tu the answer is “BERNIAGA” “Kerja untuk Diri Sendiri” “You ! Be your own BOSS”. (Contact me to know how +012-2037003  +017-3014171).

Recently, an interesting question was posted to me – tentang EMAS, Gold or AURUM (scientific name for gold & symbol “AU”). According to the penyoal …some investors cash out of stock & unit trust and rush into buying gold which supposedly promises 30% return a year. For those without the ability to buy gold, they borrow from banks (i suppose taking personal loans or refinance their house loans) to “invest” in gold. Question is – are these wise moves or fools ?….

Honestly I do not have the answer ! If there are so many believers that gold will reach USD2000 level – it may happen as “self fulfilling prophercy” sebab everybody who believes (harga gold akan sampai USD2000) akan continue to buy (invest) in gold until it reached that USD2000 level. Sama juga if there are believers that in MAY – JUNE 2011 GOLD BUBBLE akan pecah (bacalah research “Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis and Possible Burst of the “Gold Bubble” in April – June 2011” by Arkayev et al 2010), mungkin akan pecahlah bubble tersebut.

Sebab itu the wise investors will diversify – allocate duit di dalam pelbagai pelaburan – saham dan bon, unit trust, commodity terpilih (gold, silver), hartanah (real estate, tanah, rumah) dan sebagainya. Seterusnya perlu faham, tidak ada investor yang terror sangat sampai boleh dapat 100% or maximum profit in all their investment decisions. Mustahil bin ajaib ! Kekadang perlu terima sikit losses. So long as the profits are greater than the losses, we should be on the right track.

Now, soalan cepu-emas “Kenapa harga emas naik dan terus naik ? Adakah harga emas mempunyai harapan untuk terus naik lagi ?

As I wrote eralier, I do not have the answer but I do understand the reason why harga emas kelihatan seperti naik tanpa tanda-tanda akan burst. Harga sesuatu commodity dalam jangka panjang memang dipengaruhi oleh supply and demand factors. Memandangkan emas suatu commodity yang tidak mudah dicari dan nilainya diiktiraf sedunia, maka demand terhadap emas akan sentiasa melebihi supply emas (carigali & production). Dengan itu bila demand lebih dari supply, maka dalam jangka masa panjang, harga emas sepatutnya “naturally on the rise”. Soalannya jangka panjang itu berapa panjang ?

Malangnya, tak lah semudah itu. Sebab harga emas dinilai dalam US Dollars America (USD) dan soalnya USD sekarang kurang stabil dan affected by keadaan economy USA. Disini, harga emas jangka panjang menjadi “mangsa” kepada economy USA – selagi economy US sluggish dan matawang USD “lemah” (Quntitative Easing 1 & 2 – print more USD paper money), maka selagi itulah boleh dilihat harga emas “artificially on the rise”. Similar phenomenon dengan harga minyak sedunia dan lain-lain commodity denominated in US Dollars.

Lihat gambarajah dibawah – harga emas (1883 – 1999) juga turun naik seperti commodity yang lain. Especially in years 1930, 1971, 1983-85 dan 1997 -99 due the economic recession & financial crisis. Only after year 2000 harga emas mengalami trend harga naik. Tetapi, please also analyse harga emas jangka pendek (tahun ke tahun) – juga turun naik mengikut fundamental semasa.

Harga emas 1995 – sekarang.

Kita lihat pula short-term. Harga emas jangka pendek dipengaruhi oleh emosi (fear ? uncertain ?) pelabur-pelabur , analyst-analyst dan pemimpin-pemimpin negara dan governor-governor central banks. Oleh kerana keadaaan tak menentu middle east, keadaan environment & ecology yang sukar dijangka (Tsunami, gempa bumi, gunung berapi) maka harga emas akan turun naik mengikut emosi-emosi tersebut. Dalam keadaan masa kini, banyak orang berasa khuatir, risau dan kurang faham keadaan geo politic dunia – semua ini menyebabkan harga emas dan commodity dunia yang lain turut naik.

Just take a look at selected years – 1999 and more recently during the US sub-prime crisis 2007 – 2008.

So, what do you think ? Can gold price really continue to impress us ? I recap my thoughts – in long-term definitely gold would continue to rise “naturally” but mean while I really don’t know. All these information continue to points towards the true price have not actually gone up that much (year-on-year) but the rise is due to weakness in USD and fear-factor !

I still believe in asset allocation – no one investment is superior to another forever. Each instrument ada masa yang dapat memberi pulangan yang lumayan jika dikaji dengan teliti dan akal yang terbuka. Setiap kejadian ada kelemahan, nothing’s perfect except the Almighty. Cuma manusia yang ta’sub dan mengagung-agungkan sesuatu or seseorang…

Do feel free to disagree.

Happy reading…

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